3.10 Sandown
PINPOINT – Very capable handicapper and showed last time at Goodwood that he is always likely to pose a threat late on. A bit harsh to have been raised 3 lb for that which will not help his cause in a field as competitive as this. Drawn right on the outside which has to be another negative.
WATAMU – Finished a length behind PINPOINT at Goodwood and is better drawn here. Can take a keen hold and handicapper may just be in charge but unlikely to be too far away if settling OK.
TAZEEZ – Unexposed but likely to struggle to make all in a race this competitve off his revised mark.
RE-BAROLO – Done well since arriving in the UK with 3 wins. Not seen since winning in June though and although the handicapper has been fair, he will need to be at the top of his game if this is to be win number four.
KING CHARLES – Has made steady progress throughought his career. Has looked a stayer though and doubt this trip will play to his strengths. May be that this is a stepping stone to get him fit for his Autumn engagemants.
LANG SHINING – Has not really progressed and possibly a bit tricky. Longer trip will almost certainly suit but plenty to be taken on trust after he was stone-last at Glorious Goodwood last time.
PROPONENT – Well drawn and not without a chance but mark possibly high enough and another with Autumn targets to come.
KAATEB – Un-exposed but does not look especially well handicapped and he will need to continue progressing. Not sure that he is up to this mark today but I may be wrong.
BENNADONNER – Good early season form but not so good on last 3 runs. This trip is possibly as far as he wants to go and given the competitve nature of the race he may find things tough late on.
SWOP – Only had four runs but has improved each time and although up in class here, it is a near certainty that the horse still has improvement to come. In the right hands with Luca Cumani and must be a leading contender. Catches the eye though that said handler is only 1-35 at Sandown.
ASK THE BUTLER – Looks on a very stiff mark now and probably not quite up to this class at this stage. Stablemate of swop and stable second string.
LOVE GALORE – Improved performance last time against his own age group and faces stern test here from a 9lb higher mark. Folly to discount any Mark Johnston 3-y-o but looks to have plenty on and not one for me today.
LUBERON – Went out like a light at Goodwood last time and although he looks to have a more than reasonable chance if you discount that run. He was said to have used up a lot of energy early that day and no surprise to see a much better performance today.
STEELE TANGO – Likable 3-y-o and only just behind TAZEEZ last time. This is a big ask though at this stage of his career and may run well without being quite good enough but plenty with less obvious chances.
AUSTRALIA DAY – Looks on a ludicrous mark and even if the ground is fast enough looks likely to falter late courtesy of the handicapper.
NANTON – Typical tough Jim Goldie type but a veteran of 40 races and likely to find this a class too far.
CAPABLE GUEST – Pops up now and again in decent handicaps but more than a dab of temperment and the visor still missing. Risky proposition.
Conclusion; SWOP looks to have a favourites chance and the horse will not be aware of the stable’s poor course record. If the race pans out he is unlikely to be far away. LUBERON also makes some appeal. Mark Johnston is a master at getting horses back quickly after a poor run and although not the least exposed, has some pretty good form to his name. STEELE TANGO makes some appeal for minor honours as do WATAMU and PINPOINT.
Forecast 1-2-3-4
- SWOP
- LUBERON
- STEELE TANGO
- WATAMU