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Preview Of STRATFORD 16:40 12/07/2009 By Billy121only
4.40 Stratford - Billy121only
- COLD MOUNTAIN 16/1 – Never been the most solid betting proposition borne out in his win record of 3-41, despite being rated as high as 120 in the past. Did manage to win a weak race at Fontwell last time but looks outclassed in this novice and surprised if he proved good enough.
- DONALDSON 10/3– It’s been a bit all or nothing for this one who has accumulated 3 wins and 3 non-completions from his last 7 races. Showed that the bigger obstacles hold no fear for him when bolting up on his chase debut at Towcester. That was a positive as he had not always been the most fluent hurdler and AP McCoy made the point that the horse would progress if able to hold his confidence. Unfortunately, following his initial win have been an unseating here (when looking the likely winner) and last time he was bought down. Confidence may have taken a knock which is a risk but from an in-form stable who have a good record at this course and certainly has enough ability to collect.
- EVELITH ECHO 7/2 – Beat a couple of decent novices when winning his chase debut in good style and in view of that, it has to be considered a little disappointing that he was beaten 5-lengths next time. Plausible excuse that the rain had gotten into the ground though and should be happier back on this likely faster going and another with fair claims.
- GLEAN AN SAGART 9/2 –Seemingly never been better and a good effort to make all here back in May. Failed to build on that next time but still ran a good race in handicap company and certainly wouldn’t be out of this with the addition of a tongue-tie.
- NOW LISTEN TO ME 4/1 – Lightly-raced gelding from the top stable who has the services of Ruby Walsh in the saddle. Dangerous profile then and although he weakened out of it when last seen over hurdles, the shorter trip today should help and likely to be a strong contender if he jumps his fences fluently on this, his chase debut. Worth noting that he had a breathing operation over the winter, which seemed to have worked on his penultimate start but given the way he weakened next time, minor concern remains.
- PORTER’S WAR 6/1 – An analysis of his career to date leads to the conclusion that he is best when fresh. That may explain his disappointing run at the end of April which came quite soon after his win at Fontwell the same month. Does have a couple of pounds to find with the best of these and this trip probably as far as he wants to go but an interesting contender nonetheless.
- SPIRIT WIND 100/1 – Outclassed.
Conclusion: - Quite difficult to assess the likely outcome of this and any one of the leading 5 could well take the honours. Jumping will as usual play a part and none of them look bombproof in that department. Token preference is awarded to GLEAN AN SAGART, who has experience of these stiffish fences and is likely to make a bold bid from the front. Ruby will be stalking him and Now Listen To Me could pick up the pieces if the selection fails, as long as his breathing holds up. Best Trade: - Porter’s War looks a strong contender but there may just be a slight stamina doubt. Back him pre-race and lay off in running at around 80% of your initial price.
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Written by Billy121only.
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